The world is changing.
This will be nothing like times past. We can see a bit of what will happen, but the magnitude of change will cast a wide net…no, not a net. More like a hurricane
Yes, a hurricane in Florida is a good analogy; not a little one, but a Cat 5 that sweeps the coast from south to north, then makes its way up the east coast. The news warns people to take action, and a few people do, but getting a few bottles of water, a bit of food and a couple of batteries might make you feel prepared, but isn’t much help when the big storm arrives.
A few crazy people stand on the beach. Fewer grab surf boards. Jim on the weather channel warns us, but too few do much. They just don’t know! People want to watch the storm of a lifetime…at least they think they do. I have my hurricane kit. My house is secure. I will have a full tank of gas, and water in the car. Having lived on or near the sea all my life, I know what nature can do to what men have built. I won’t come back until the air conditioning is on!
There is a hurricane coming in the world of making things. In a few years, engine and transmission plants will close. Suppliers to them will either find other markets, or fail. New companies and new alliances will form. Battery plants will sprout up; too many, I fear. Many will fail. Never before have such potential energy storage devices been mass produced. Mistakes do not result in scrap, but fires and explosions. The technology of potential energy storage will advance faster than the ability of factories that build them. Brilliant scientists will invent things faster than the rest of us can figure out how to make. Supply chains will be disrupted like never before.
It isn’t just that batteries and motors will replace engines and transmissions. Any company that plugs something the into a battery, or transfers the power around will be in a new world. Even the window lift motors and tail lights will have new requirements. We merely think we have an idea of what this storm is like. But like the hurricane just over the horizon, we can only imagine. Every gadget will have a chip. I just read that your iPhone will replace the instrument cluster. Monitoring systems will interface with your phone.
You are not in the auto supply chain? You will compete for the same resources, people and space.
This will happen in spite of economic impedance. CEO’s will break out in a fear-driven sweat…and buy new equipment. Companies will be heeled over like a sailboat in a storm. The crew will be on deck. The captain had little choice over the course to sail. Those who remained in port have no chance. A well trained crew will be needed for this ride.
Professional problem solvers will be in high demand, but only the best. Change always demands problem solvers, but not like this! The coming storm will create a demand that I cannot define, but I know is coming. The need will be greatest for those who can work across domains and work at the systems level, build proper models, and execute. The best will not wait for a problem, but rather be able to characterize, to see what is happening from the start of these new processes. Certifications won’t mean much. Your reputation will.
There will be no time for a series of seminars where the emphasis is on tools and certification. Three years to reach a level or proficiency, merely to teach more seminars? Forget it.
How about three months? How about no seminars? Why not skip the proficiency in tools, cutting right to what matters? If “improvement takes place project by project and in no other way,” then let’s get to the projects.
Instead of seminars, practice projects; workshops and projects, with a simple model-based approach. Train people to start and finish the projects they are assigned, in the industry they work. Then do it again, and again. Fast. Learn. Travel light, with a small, effective, model based tool box.
When the hurricane comes, be ready. All we really know is that it is coming.
We can help. It is what we do. If you want to learn to do what we do, come to the Symposium on September 21, 22 in Livonia, Michigan. There are a few places left…get one for yourself.
We hope to see you there.